We saw possible signs of bottom formation in gold miners today. Ofcourse we want confirmation in the following week. Quite a few of them caught on sizeable tractions gain today. We would like to scale into HL this week and next. We like the stochastics, RSI turning over, bearish MACD histogram divergences. We also particularly like the rather bearish looking candle with a huge topping tail that HL put in today. We treat this like a contrarian indicator - sort of misplaced topping candle at the bottoms. Our first target is the 20MA, which is around 8.15 today. Remember, this is descending and it could be around 7.5 by the time we touch it. Good luck
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold miners
We saw possible signs of bottom formation in gold miners today. Ofcourse we want confirmation in the following week. Quite a few of them caught on sizeable tractions gain today. We would like to scale into HL this week and next. We like the stochastics, RSI turning over, bearish MACD histogram divergences. We also particularly like the rather bearish looking candle with a huge topping tail that HL put in today. We treat this like a contrarian indicator - sort of misplaced topping candle at the bottoms. Our first target is the 20MA, which is around 8.15 today. Remember, this is descending and it could be around 7.5 by the time we touch it. Good luck
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14 comments:
Looking the chart it seems like a double top or an head and shoulder figure and maybe we will have only a pullback.
Consider XME for this trade. As goes oil and commodities, so it will probably go, right?
Hopefully, I don't want industrial metals as of now, though I assume all commodities may see a bounce. I want to go with gold as it has been the first to show signs bounce
@anonymous:- sorry I am failing to see a HnS, Can you illustrate?
Double top is possible, either way we expect atleast 10% on this trade.
nice looking blog...
Well I sold my DXD for a small 2% gain. I am all cash right now and will wait until Friday.
I believe the market will take a tumble in a few weeks (I am bear)so I am looking for a good "short" ETF.
Ya the golden colour got to me finally. I just chose the minimal template available.
Hold on mimi, the week is opex. It is generally advisable to stay out to keep emotions in check. Next week should tell us which way, it is going. Tomorrow or friday, I still think we may get a monstrous rally.
forgot to attest, that was me clarke
Mimi, 2% on a two day trade is terrific. My stock account was 2% Monday, 2% Tuesday and 1% today, but my mutual funds weighed both Tuesday and Wednesday. WVV did surprisingly well today with the major indexes being down, probably because it has a healthy proportion of materials and energy in it.
If anyone wants to try a dividend play, here are three upcoming.
CVX August 15th
PCU August 18th
ATO August 21th
Check to make sure I've got the right data, of course, before you jump. Sometimes it isn't worth it, because a stock still move up the amount of the dividend and cost you that extra percent or so and then drop and you sell for that much less and only break even. But if you happen to catch the buy or sell on a good day where other market forces are driving the stock in a favorable direction, you may get a couple of percent on the trade and then get that juicy dividend a few weeks later. Sometimes you can have your cake and eat it too.
Just a quick reminder from investopedia:
Ex-dividend date– On (or after) this date the security trades without its dividend. If you buy a dividend paying stock one day before the ex-dividend you will still get the dividend, but if you buy on the ex-dividend date, you won't get the dividend. Conversely, if you want to sell a stock and still receive a dividend that has been declared you need to sell on (or after) the ex-dividend day. The ex-date is the second business day before the date of record.
I took some healthy profits in my gold miners, in the strength today. I will buy back on any pullback.
Hil_feld, as tempting as the dividend sounds, I would hold off on any dividend plays and play conservative for a while, until this market tells me which way it wants to go. This market is not out of the woods yet. It could go either which way in the near term, and I guess nimbleness is the key.
I didn't try the CVX dividend play today. The key to me trying it today would be if CVX was down today, giving me a greater likelihood of making a percent or two on it over the next day or two. I was on the road most of the day going back and forth to a funeral out-of-town. I stopped and used the open wireless at a motel at an interstate exit shortly after lunchtime and checked the market. Most of the ten or so energy equities on my watch list were down a couple of percent or so, but Chevron was down only about 1/3 of a percent at the time. That suggested that the imminent ex-dividend date tomorrow had gained enough notice to keep CVX up and make the play less likely to work. If someone had purchased CVX three days ago, the dividend play would probably have worked, but who can see three days ahead, much less one day ahead?
But it was a good day. An overnight trade (UYG), a day trade (LTL - the low for the day, $67.00, is my purchase, and maybe some other people too, which I did with a preset bid, and I sold for $68.53 at the motel by the interstate; would that fit the bill for nimbleness :) and my major long holding (MVV) resulted in a 2+% day, not counting mutuals. I'm happy. Maybe not gold trader gains, but gains, nonetheless.
Good luck for tomorrow, everyone. I'm all long and still off margin.
Back to the original topic -- gold miners -- well, gold, at least.
If you look at the chart of GLD for about the last 4 weeks, that looks more like a good short. This article says to stay in gold.
article
Seeing how far it has fallen and how quickly, I'm glad I'm not in it. Too risky for me.
I heard on CNBC that GS had downgraded gold (hmmm, is that how it should be phrased?) with a price target of $760 if I remember correctly.
Hey hil,
760-775 is a key level on Gold. We touched that level on gold today. 12.75 is a key level on silver and we touched that level today. I believe we will see a bounce in commodities next week. That ascending has to break if we are to have a rally upto the 200d on the stock market. There are too many people watching that trendline.
As for me, I dipped my toe in some energy and silver today, sold off my market long ETFs today. Next week is going to be a do or die week.
Btw, I looked at the nat gas cot report. I love what I am seeing there. By my calculations, we may see natgas starting to rallying either monday or tuesday. Lets see.
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