Saturday, October 25, 2008

The abyss ahead

I got an email, requesting me to atleast draw a chart instead of soothsayer like predictions. Sorry but we have been extremely busy and trading is only an addictive hobby for us.

So here goes -

The chart above is of the SPY.
We were hoping that the pennant type cluster which began on oct 10, resolve quickly last week and we finish off the necessary 5 waves. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened. I guess no one can command the waves. This is also because in general corrections alternate. Wave 2 as you can see was a sharp, short affair. Wave 4 is this sloppy, time consuming pennant or triangle or flag or whatever you chose to call.
I believe, we got into wave 5(i), on thursday late and ended with the gap down on friday morning. Whole of friday we spent on wave 5(ii). The last 10 minutes, could have the been the beginning of wave 5(iii). The silver lining is the positive divergences on the momentum indicators, indicating the selling is losing strength and validates our view that we are in the final phase (wave 5) of selling.

If this plays out, we could be down hard next week. We are praying that the 2002 lows hold. That target is around 768. We don't expect 840(oct 10 lows) to hold. There are other targets around 730 and around 656. But the most dire target is around 484.
Timewise, these waves should end by next week. And we should see a multi-month bottom in a week or so. The question is at what price?

We are fervently praying that this market holds near 768 or even 730. Beyond that, it is extremely scary to even think what would happen to the world we are living in.
I guess we all need to pray.

6 comments:

MiMi said...

Clarke...still holding SDS?

Clarke said...

Yes, I also added to my position when the dow was +100 or so.

MiMi said...

I am holding SDS..if you dont mind me asking..when do you plan to exit? The market may come down to 800 then bounce and then come down again...

Anonymous said...

Asia is up. Rate cut should hit tomorrow. Hope you both have stops ready in case this oversold market rallies and then you can short again it at the end of the rally. A really good rally would go a long way in helping the market get over this deleveraging and forced selling and get us back to normal.

Another possible long would be FXJ.

Clarke said...

I exited today at 115. In at 89.

Got into sso when the dow was up 500 and rode it up to 800.

wow! what a day. Shorted some stocks at the end of the day.

Clarke said...

Hil you are a soothsayer