Transports

Action:

The charts above (daily(Top) and weekly(bottom)) are of the US transportation average. It is strongly believed that the $TRAN is the harbinger of all the charts, akin to FEDEX & UPS, being reflective of the US economy.
The $TRAN had a nice Head n Shoulders pattern and traded in an upward channel until last month. From then on, it has been in a downtrend, and broke the upward channel this week.
This doesn't mean that the upward momentum is lost, it only means that the steeper upward momentum is not sustainable. The chart may trend sideways to upwards in the near term before coming down.

Guess:

Charts in such uptrend channels, when they breakout from the channel often retrace back to the bottom line in the channel which then serves as resistance. The daily stoch on the $TRAN is also oversold, while the weekly still suggests more downside. This is typical of stocks who have been on a huge uptrend and have gone through correction. The 4800-4900 level is also the fibonacci retracement of 68% on the daily $TRAN. It is also the region of the 200d moving average on the daily and the 50W moving averages. These have proven to be resistances in the past. We expect to provide support in the near term. We believe we could have a tad more downside in this average next week until the low 4800s. It would be surprising for us to penetrate this region in one go.
Consequently, we believe a rally upto 5400 or so is imminent in July/August.
What happens after that, can be reevaluated once we have more pieces of the puzzle.