Tuesday, July 15, 2008

When will the bleeding stop?

The above is the chart of the VIX. As seen from around the start of MAY, it has been inching its way slowly and is up to 31 today. The bleeding has been constant and orderly. There have been no signs of capitulation in general, Probably the bank stocks have seen capitulation. But the VIX is still a good 20% away from the yearly highs.

To use David Tice's analogy: January and March were akin to a frog in boiling water and the frog quickly jumped out. This time around, the heat is being turned on gradually. So the frog is ignorant.

The VIX is at the top of its channel. There is a small bearish divergence in the VIX. Do we see capitulation? Are there too many people watching the VIX that we will never see a capitulation but a rounded bottom?

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