Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Next few days



The past few days' action has left many perplexed - as hil_feld rightly commented on one of the posts on this blog. The basis for the movement today was actually bullish in the face of oil going up and Freddie and Fannie getting spanked.

Naturally the question is where does the market head from here? We look at two charts the transports and SPY for an answer
First, the transports has a possible (perhaps sloppy) Head n shoulders. However, the right shoulder looks weak. It needs some more filling. Accordingly, we are expecting at least a rally on the transports to 5150 level - a possible upside of about 4-5%.
Another piece of evidence is more of a contrarian pyschological one. Almost every tom, dick and harry has been watching the ascending line on the SPX and the DOW. Once, it broke, there has been a sea shift into bearish mode. Somehow, we believe there will be another push upside, just because the market has its own mind. Our first target on the SPY is around 130.4.
Finally, the intra day volume in the past three days, is actually showing bullish divergences - low downside volumes and higher upside volume today.

Our vehicle to play this upmove, would be the QLD, since it is now resting on support. Furthermore, the AAPL chart looks prime for another blast upwards.

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