The end of another nice week for us, though not as eventful/profitable as the last 2.
We are mostly in cash except for a small nugget of index shorts, loaded up today at 970.
We have a key turn date coming up next week or early the week, after that.
That should lead to a multi month rally.
As for the action, in the next week, we envision a symmetrical triangle formation/wedge formation on the indices. We think this triangle will break down. How low we go is anybody's guess. We may retest the lows again or even test the 2002 lows again. We are more certain of the time now than the price action. Since there was a huge amount of selling in the last 2 weeks.
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I am ready for it....but does it happen on Monday or Wednesday?
mimi, how've you been? It has been a long time. My work has almost killed my blogging and trading time. I rarely get the chance to get a peek at the markets.
So I have to place stop orders all the time. Luckily, these have also been the best times.
The only position of mine which has hurt me is UNG, though I am still holding it.
Monday is too soon imo. My guess now, is we will hit a bottom on monday oct 27th or on tuesday the 28th.
Yes it has been a long time..(I check your blog everyday). My work has kept me busy but I still play the market..I cant help it I love it.
In the last few weeks I have lost some money because my emotions but I am learning to cut losses sooner and put stops in place and not to be greedy. I did better this week.
I am reading this week is the turning point..who really knows?
I have a small position in SDS
(92.50)I am in the green but I will probably sell on Monday at 98.50.
Nice mimi.
Work is busy for me too. Even though this is my first job, I can see the difference in the 4 months I have been on it. There is a palpable sense of conservatism setting in, cost cutting etc.
Somehow, I think this recession is going to last for a long time at least in the US.
Historically, when such global fluctuations have taken place, there have been tectonic shifts in economics. For e.g. in the 1800s, england became the superpower, in 1929s in similar conditions US became the superpower usurping england. I think this time it will be the US which is going to be usurped in the next 10-15 years.
Also, whenever such transitions of superpower status takes place, one can expect upheavals. I am scared to think we may have a war down the road. Who knows?
BTW, have you started a blog yet?
I've been busy too, a week away teaching, family, etc., so mostly watching the market. Allocation is almost 70% bonds, almost 10% cash and about 20% equities. Licking a few wounds from the crash, but hoping for better days. Still playing the index and sector ETFs primarily.
Nice action today. Not so volatile. I daytraded lots of RXL and then, gulp, I bought DUG for $41.57 at the closing bell. Wish me luck at the opening bell. tomorrow.
Clarke, starting my own blog is time consuming and I am not nearly as good as you trading. At this point I want to recoup the money I lost and move on to something that doesnt take up so much of my time.
Hil- I hope you do well with your DUG position. I did well last month with DUG.
I am still holding SDS at 92.50 ..not sure if I should cut my losses and give up trading.
Mimi, the only good trader is a disciplined trader. Remember to cut losses at 2-3%. I always follow this rule, come what may. I broke it with UNG and I am a bag holder.
I have followed that rule after my UNG religiously and it has paid off.
More than anything, I think it is discipline.
Hey hil, it has been a long time. I am looking to snap up some energy trusts here. Look at PWE etc. they have a dividend of 20%. Hope they don't cut the dividend too drastically. Let see I won't mind a 10% dividend even then.
Also look at muni bonds like KTF.
As for the market, this action is typical corrective action. It is suggesting the market is struggling to go higher. Maybe there is another downside flush remaining. I am almost in cash, save for my bag of natural gas and some DZZ, from the low 30s.
In my stock fund I've been going to 2/3rds cash by the end of each day -- except my timing was bad in placing stops today, so I'm at zero cash -- but nothing on margin. Today was lousy after I cashed in my DUG for almost $3 per share at the open. I bought some ultra ETFs when the DOW was down about 90, made some profits on the first round, bought some more when it was back at 90 and before I could whistle Dixie -- and set stops -- it was down 200. But never fear. Well, yeah, I better fear. Futures at present are up for tomorrow. More importantly, AAPL blew everyone away, so it went up over 10% in afterhours. It will take tech up with it tomorrow -- I hope -- thus my ROM was way up in afterhours and T is up too, since they handle the AAPL phones, so LTL should head back up. T reports in the morning, sooooooo if their report doesn't rain on my parade, maybe tomorrow should be a better day than today.
Some that I am watching: BRKB, RXL (again).
I'm tired of grading tests and papers and gonna hit the sack. Hope you all have a prosperous tomorrow.
T missed. Futures are down this morning. Cash is still king and I'll head back that direction again quickly.
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