Are we breaking down? are we going to see the mother of all crashes?
I don't know, ofcourse we could. But our bet is still bullish, the near term trend is still oh-so-slightly-bullish.
What do elliott waves tell us?
If anyone tells you, they know what is going on with an EWT explanation, we think that would be BS. Elliott waves are notoriously difficult to decipher in corrective patterns. There are infact 11 corrective patterns. Corrective patterns are sloppy and they are meant to keep everyone guessing. So we have a multi-tude of elliott waves with mixed signals.
What can charts tell us?
We still prefer the uptrend. We don't know where this pullback will end. Our guess is around the 895-905 area. We will look for signs for huge downward volume.
Why are we still oh-so-ever-slightly bullish?
We like the 5dma uptrending and the 20dma coming from under. We are not short or long this market. Should it come down to the above 900 region - we will look at short term intra day moving averages to put in a buy if there is a bullish set up.
We have also looked at many stocks and lots of them have had huge 25% run, a 10-15% pullback is only natural.
We will turn bearish should we take out the 900 region.
Lets see
11 comments:
I agree EW is a pain in the a*&%$ to watch...
I sold SLV around 10.44. I got a bad entry around 9.7. But my SSRI did better.
I think there will be a pullback soon and then I will reevaluate the pullback to decide if silver is still bullish.
EW is good in impulse waves. In corrective, it is really a crapshoot. I have seen so much flip flopping, when the corrective waves start.
Heck, I remember the stock tock guy called the bottom in september on the two days short selling ban. I remember. That was corrective. And then I saw last week he said we will get the mother of all bear markets. I am only using him as an example, since I saw so many EWT guys get it wrong. I did not realize the oct 28th rally until the dow was up 500 points, that this was the short term bottom.
Basically, EW corrective waves are notorious to judge because of the chop. It is very wise to find trending stocks aka snot stocks and play them during such periods.
You would have heard the cliche the trend is your friend. Well the daily trend is now sideways to slightly bullish and the weekly trend is down. That is why there is so much chop. If we are infact to get the mother of all bear market crashes, I can afford to wait for the daily trend to match the weekly before hopping on.
My gut says, this market is going to 1100, in the next couple of weeks. We should reverse then.
I thought SLV would go to 13-14 in the next couple of months (based on your charts)?
I hope you are right about 1100that would be great..
opinion on airline stocks?
You may like this blog...
http://blog.stockmarketharmony.com/
I still think SLV will go to 13 in the next 2-3 months. But it has come way up too fast. It will give a signal to jump in headlong soon.
I am waiting for it.
Thanks for the blog. It is indeed nice. I have bookmarked it.
On airline stocks, when I did DD sometime back LUV's long term chart was spectacular. It is still not "ripe" yet. But it is slowly getting there. I will definitely post it here. My guess is sometime around next year it will really take off.
As for short term trades, I need to spend some time looking at individual charts. Until this chop shop ends, I will wait. There are nice charts in health care last I looked. check out AFAM.
Maurice's public chart list.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808
What a roller-coaster market.
I bought a starter position of 100 shares in SLV on your recommendation. Bought it yesterday at $9.11. Bought a little MCD. Golden arches, like WMT, ought to be a fairly safe long position. Mostly on the sidelines still and just tip-toeing back in.
Hi hil,
keep a very tight on SLV. I will do a post on the dollar very soon. If silver closes below 9.17, it would be wise to get out of that position.
Things as you say are very volatile. All I have done in the past 2 weeks are buy the UUP and short using SDS, whenever the market is up 300 points. It has worked quite well. My pf is up over 11% in the last 2 months, ofcourse save for ung,
Also, I sold my silver around 10.44.
I am still waiting for the dollar to top out, before buying any equities. They are almost inversely correlated now. I expect another big move in the dollar very soon.
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