Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The week ok the elections

We received some emails (some of them even hateful) late last week and earlier this week, saying we were wrong in our oh-so-bullish look on the market and this was the work of the PPT and how the gloom and doom still exist and wave 5 of the bear market is yet to unfold.
It may all be true. We don't deny any of it. We only write what we see. We have been wrong before and we have also been right where many others were wrong.
But the argument just reminded us of the time around the beginning of July, when we warned the commodity trade was going to burst and there were many saying there is going to be hyperinflation etc.

As we see, it is very simple. The rally came furtively when no one expected it - on no news, and I will reiterate, for sure it caught a lot of shorts with their pants down. These shorts are averaging up and waiting to cover.
I don't know how far the indices will rally - yes the volume is pathetic etc. This is afterall a bear market rally. Sure, the lows of oct 2002 will be taken out. Until then, we don't want to miss the juicy quick 20-25% on offer. It has been a nicely profitable week given our exposure to SSRI, CSIQ and ACH. We chased SLV a bit, but the returns have been nice and quick. We are trail stopping on this.
Even our bagholder position UNG is acting well.

We are not adding any new longs, but slowly peeling off on some of our hugely profitable longs at this point. We will buy select dirt cheap/dividend stocks on any low volume pullbacks.

1 comment:

MiMi said...

when do you plan on selling SLV?