Likely target/Scenario

Above is a long term chart of the dow jones transportation average. This average was the first amongst the major indices to break its Nov 20 low. As can be seen, the average is very close to 2000. For elliott wavers, this is the apex of the previous Wave 4, which is usually the target of a correction. Plain technical analysis says, we should expect a strong bounce from this region. I fully expect us to visit this region (2000) sooner than later and a bounce to 3000 at least.

I have drawn a possible scenario, which can unfold in the coming 4-5 months, giving us the strong 50% rally in this index, and the subsequent resumption of the bear market trend, before the year end.

Sadly, if this head 'n' shoulder plays out (I rate the occurrence of this scenario very highly) - we are going to have an extremely brutal 2010/2011, we can expect it to be much worse than 2008, especially when we break the neckline (sometime later this year/2010). 

Hopefully, we will have somewhere to hide then - probably gold, agricultural commodities ?? (if they are not banned by the govt). I don't know yet.

Side Note (feel free to ignore):- Politically, if this HnS does play out - We will be at the bottom of the bear market during the re-election time. The social mood will be so bad, that Obama's chance of an extended term seem very slim.