May 18

10:50 a.m Bounce off 20d again. There are still too many doubting Thomases. Also, quite a few TA'ers thinking the small incursion below 20d on friday, would automatically mean the market going to the 50d. The market promptly reverses. As for us, we are riding TSO and our leftover positions in various stocks like PM, PBT etc. Also we added the customary sliver SPY short at 90.

Rant (feel free to ignore): Of late we feel Cramer has been wrongly castigated. He asked people to exit at 10,000 and then to get back at 6700. If anyone followed his advice, they would be smiling now. Sure, he makes bad calls. Everyone does. But if anyone followed. We are not a fan of cramer or have an association with him within 6 degrees of separation - but at face value, following his advice would have clearly brought one about 50-100% profit for this year alone.

5:45 p.m. Strong breadth/low volume. We did anticipate a rally based on friday's action but today's move (atleast for us) is not the kind we like to trade.

What next? - we think a tag and incursion of the 200d is possible. But we will not be playing it, as we cannot see any setups/patterns here. EWT sure is a great tool, but at minute levels there are umpteen labels that every hour requires a change of labels. As we have saying for umpteen posts now, we will wait for June, when our intermediate term cycles top out. Often the best trade is be flat.

Our portfolio as of now, is littered with long positions made up with house money from PM, PBT, PWE, URRE etc ...
and a new long TSO (about 10%) and SPY shorts (~ 12% av @90.5), GILD short (3%).

Yes we tested the underside of the rising trendline, but until we break 875, we are not shorting aggressively.

Here is one of the blogs we often read (and enjoy):-
The following post is quite nice. We are sure quite a few bears are following the gameplan described in there.
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/05/heres-why-i-prefer-not-to-fight-with.html
We follow quite a few message boards and stock chart forums filled with TA'ers. We can vouch the above has been their gameplan to a T. Quite a few Faz'ers, SRS'ers, TZA'ers have gotten obliterated. We are guilty of trying to short too but only using the methodical SPY short and covering. This has worked wonderfully well, keeps emotions out and we see no reason to discontinue it as yet.