May 29

11:10 P.M Very whippy, no way out yet. On the other hand, we just cannot stop ourselves from shorting the precious metals. We may be shooting the trend here (which is clearly short term up), but the 200W is right at 25 for SSRI, the risk reward is too good. So, we added a sliver of SSRI short at 24.5

2:30 P.M Whippy action continues. But one market has been a straight line today. The yields have gone straight down. A big shout out to Jenszen who pointed out the seasonal play in TLT beginning end of may. We wrote about this seasonality in our blog post yesterday. J is in TBT puts @56 from 2 days prior.

2:45 P.M SSRI seems to be cratering. Lowering buy stops to 23.9. Atleast we have about 2% profit on a day like today.

3.00 P.M Covered 50% of SSRI at 23.7 for a 3% profit.

3:30 P.M One step up, one step down. We are not dancing.

4.00 P.M Breakout. Wohoo!! the bulls win again. We blogged yesterday about this hunch. We have maintained for a while now, our long term cycles top only in June. We will look for distribution patterns then. We reiterate again, today is a key day. We think the 200d will be assailed and the target for the SPY is the 50W moving average.
Lets rationalize with some sentiment(always with care :-)), the 200d is like the definition of the bear market to many people. A 5-10% incursion above it, is enough to drag quite a few folks onto the bull side, claiming the bear is officially dead. Bear markets have vicious rallies in direct proportion to the viciousness of the bear. This one seems like it will be real vicious bear when it wakes up later.