May 7

8:30 a.m News flow is getting better and better. Time to sell is getting closer. A top may form 8th-11th.

10:30 a.m. Sold 90% of PBT (6% profit). Sold off (90%) PWE@12.7 from long term portfolio. Added another sliver of SPY short. PM looks like a bull flag, so holding onto that. In tune with yesterday, nasdaq should be the leader on the downside. Will look to add small portions of qqqq short on bear flags.

11:14 a.m PM rallying amidst a sickish market. Triangle breakouts are indeed fun (and profitable :-)) to trade. But it is also worthwhile noting, triangles are usually the last consolidation phase in the thrust higher. They also retrace upto the apex of the triangle, like XLE, nasdaq etc. have just accomplished. If you find any potential triangles do let us know :-)

11.50 a.m. Terrible natgas report, and natgas rallies. We got what we wanted. Sold the rest of the 10% of UNG. We have run up 25% in a week. While this is bullish, we can count a full 5 wave from the bottom. PM looks like another long bull flag.

12.10 a.m. Sold 80% PM for a 4% profit. Rest is house money, with 5% dividend.

1:45 p.m. back from lunch, have the flood gates opened? We don't know, but the strategy SPY slivers is simple. If SPY reaches 90, we will cover a portion of our SPY short from the morning. We have a top pencilled in 8th-11th. If indeed it is the top, the cycle turns up on the 25th later this month.

2.30 p.m Shorted AMZN at 78.8. We believe this could go all the way upto the 50d MA (~75). GILD is bouncing as expected yesterday, in wave 2. We will wait and watch how far the bounce carries it before re-shorting.

5.00 P.M This past week has been the story of one commodity - the last commodity to rebound and what a way to do it -- natgas. We nailed the bottom absolutely spot on (The widowmaker), and captured a decent portion of it. The volume surge and the percentage gain surge have been superb. Today UNG closed above its 50d for the first time in almost 10 months.

We want to maintain long positions in natural gas, for the next 4-6 months. The COT reports indicate the commercials have a historic all time high net long position. We are in for the mother of all giant squeezes, through this summer.
We believe UNG has decent upside 25-30 should be doable in 5-6 months. While it can pullback somewhat since it is thoroughly overbought, any pullback we buy slivers. Look out for a scintillating July seasonal rally in natural gas.