9:20 a.m. We absolutely hate it. We stalk out and buy NVS and then it does nothing for a few days and we get out with a meagre profit. And now it gaps up 4% :-) This happened with PM too. bah! we need more patience.
1:10 p.m. Covered spy sliver short from 92.5. We have two more slivers @87.5, @90.
1:20 p.m Gold miners and PM getting smashes. And we got shaken out of SSRI short. Damn! Maybe there are phases in trading. We are probably in a lean one right now, after a fabulous run over the last month or so.
5:55 p.m Nice solid red candle with nice increasing downside breadth from monday, looks like a 3 wave of some kind. We seem to have made a top bang on our May 11th cycle turn. Next short term cycle turn is May 25th(+/-).
Now the more important question - Is the bull rally over? We are leaning towards - *not yet*. Technically, the larger term cycles don't turn until June end. More importantly, we need to see how the market handles the 20 and 50 moving averages and also April's Wave 'B' triangle consolidation(for e.g. in XLE). We are likely to see buyers turn up in that zone. The larger question in our mind is what will the bulls buy? We don't see anything attractive other than a few energy stocks, specifically natural gas stocks which is pulling back after the gusher move. Tomorrow should be the test of the 20d moving average on the SPY. The russell, tran, NDX have already failed at their 20d, which is a pointer rds further weakness. The interesting area is therefore SPX - 830 (50d). We fully believe the market will make it there in a few weeks time.
Our strategy is to short stocks that have flown up high above their 20d, e.g. AFAM. Basically, the more the separation the greater the fall. We will also start covering some SPY slivers along the way, every 25 points or so.
1:10 p.m. Covered spy sliver short from 92.5. We have two more slivers @87.5, @90.
1:20 p.m Gold miners and PM getting smashes. And we got shaken out of SSRI short. Damn! Maybe there are phases in trading. We are probably in a lean one right now, after a fabulous run over the last month or so.
5:55 p.m Nice solid red candle with nice increasing downside breadth from monday, looks like a 3 wave of some kind. We seem to have made a top bang on our May 11th cycle turn. Next short term cycle turn is May 25th(+/-).
Now the more important question - Is the bull rally over? We are leaning towards - *not yet*. Technically, the larger term cycles don't turn until June end. More importantly, we need to see how the market handles the 20 and 50 moving averages and also April's Wave 'B' triangle consolidation(for e.g. in XLE). We are likely to see buyers turn up in that zone. The larger question in our mind is what will the bulls buy? We don't see anything attractive other than a few energy stocks, specifically natural gas stocks which is pulling back after the gusher move. Tomorrow should be the test of the 20d moving average on the SPY. The russell, tran, NDX have already failed at their 20d, which is a pointer rds further weakness. The interesting area is therefore SPX - 830 (50d). We fully believe the market will make it there in a few weeks time.
Our strategy is to short stocks that have flown up high above their 20d, e.g. AFAM. Basically, the more the separation the greater the fall. We will also start covering some SPY slivers along the way, every 25 points or so.
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