Friday, August 7, 2009

The setup exists

We believe we may have seen the top or should see one very soon. In accordance,
we began initiating short positions today. Our model calls for an intermediate term bear market (about 3-4 months) into november 15th. We believe the brunt of the sell-off will be in the nasdaq and the semi-conductors and the commodities and probably less severe on retailers or autos - basically stocks which bottomed in oct, Nov will be hit hard.

In terms of price and time - we expect a brief, sharp correction beginning next week and into Aug 24th cycle low. We expect bulls to buy the dip but it will be a correction and should burn the bulls in september/october time frame.

On top is one chart we are looking to short - HGG. Our labelling is shown. This chart has beautiful elliott wave labels and a classic 4th wave triangle. Wave 1 has equality with wave 5 in time and price.

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