Longer Term

This is a follow up to the post below.

http://maybeitsclarke.blogspot.com/2009/03/likely-targetscenario.html

The above is a longer chart of the industrial average. It is a fairly obvious formation and overtly bearish one if it comes to fruition.

So what is missing? - Time component. We need to have a whipsaws for a few months creating confusion for say 5-6 months. Let say if we attain 10800-11500 by Jun 2010 if will look perfect with a sort of rounded top formation that we have been calling for. More importantly, it will also tire out the PIII gang of elliott wavers and subside the bearish sentiment somewhat. We are waiting for the "ideal" cover declaring things are dandy, the latest TIME cover is far from it.

Price wise, we are entering into turbulence zone now. We expect numerous attempts to get into the 11000 area and lot of failures, frustrating both bulls and bears.

Lots of cycles would line up with a top in March-July 2010 and we could have then have a significant bear market in the last half of 2010-2011 time frame.

Ofcourse, like all things this is a long term view and something to keep at the back of your mind.