seasonal cycle

The bullish seasonal cycle begins in march. So, we are inclined to call it a low. We have another major cycle low around March 15th. So net-net we are looking for an intermediate term low in the first week of march.

For the above outlook to hold, we need to decline pronto. Any rally exceeding Feb 24 means we are actually heading higher. As of this writing, there are no signals to go short. Plus if a significant bear market has to unfold in the later half of 2010, we need to see distribution and that typically takes 6-8 weeks of choppy trapping action. As of now, we want to see how the seasonal rally out of the march low will unfold. If it is strong, we expect a top near 1270, otherwise we could just make a failed double top (~1170) or some such.

We will wait to see how the market handles itself into march 1 before any trades.

For now, we don't see any tradeable charts. If gold declines into the march 1 timeframe, we would buy it based on the HL chart in the previous post.