Bulls on steroids

Recap & Stance:

Another bullish day, with another whipsaw and another round of pain for the bears.

We will be the first to admit, we were wrong in looking for a cycle low around Mar 27th (+/-).

Instead it most certainly looks like it will be a cycle high. Cycle inversions happen sometimes in our model of calculating cycle turndates (and again we will be the first to admit, our cycle model needs more work).

What the market has done is actually tag the 20Weekly moving average. It is a tag after a long time. The market will face resistance here. The daily SPY is wedging - the internals advances/declines, momentum, mclellan oscillators etc. are calling for a sharp pullback ( probably a DOW -400 tomorrow??). We like the odds of a nice sell-off/correction here. 

Trades:

We did not trade intra day, but when we saw the SPY tag the 20Week moving average late in the day, it opened the window for a disciplined "easy" trade in terms of risk-reward. We entered a small position on TZA (3x short russell) @ 44.5. The plan is simple - a daily close above the 20Week moving average + 1%, (around 835) and we close our trade for a loss. The reward side - our target is the 5Week Moving average, around 760. 

Our next cycle turn is Apr 8th (+/-). Maybe Wave 3 starts then??