Our "uncle" point on the XLE is 44. If the labeling we have been following is right, we need to start selling off first thing tomorrow. XLE closed at 43.5. So, there is not much wiggle room. For the SPX, the point is around 800. The Nasdaq has a wierd wave structure and in a world of its own. We will revisit the labelling based on the action tomorrow.
Intraday charts (not posted) have bearish momentum divergences and daily oscillators are overbought. The other comfort for the bears is the declining volume on the move higher.
We will wait and watch for the type of pullback we get over the rest of the week and next. We expect a pullback into March 25th-27th. If we make a higher high than 666 on the SPX, we could have a "failed" 5th wave and be off to the races in April.
Our stance is neutral as of now. Things are too mixed for us to discern one way or another.
Addendum: Hopefully tomorrow will provide us a vital clue. If we get another big up day tomorrow, the theory of wave 4 of 5 could be over and the big rally we have been expecting started indeed on one of our turndates (Mar 11 +/-). We have a turndate on Mar 27 +/-. We are still biased towards a pullback leading into the 27th timeframe(a low) and then a monster rally. Things are definitely getting very interesting at this point.
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