Thursday, April 16, 2009

Mid day Apr16

10:30 a.m Just had some time to look at the screens in the morning. Entered a small JPM short position at double top of 33.4. We think this could go back to 25 or so over the next few months.

2:30 p.m Stopped out of the rest SPY shorts @86 for a healthy loss. Net even on the trade. This market is too strong. Still have JPM and GILD shorts though, they are still about even/slightly green.

3.00 p.m What about the wedge? May be everyone realizes it is a wedge - meaning it is too obvious for its own good. So we switch to waiting and watching the hourly moving averages for buying/selling opportunity. As of now the boat has been missed to the upside. A side note, we have a few fellow traders who use astro technicals to trade. They claim apr17th is the venus direct and we could see a significant turning point on 17th. Take the info FWIW, as everything else.

3:40 p.m VIX 5min (5MA is about to make a bullish crossover into 20MA). Expecting a huge sudden down move. Still watching.

3:50 p.m wow the VIX signal doesn't fail. Smells like massive distribution is going on. Still watching, if we get a confirmed bearish hourly MA cross or topping candle to put on a swing trade. Rumour has it that a short hedge fund is facing redemption and margin calls. haha is that karma ??

3:58 Clear sub minuette 5 wave down. Meaning the trend on the minute scale is down. Will the astro gurus be proved right ? We are not betting on any side yet. We will watch for our a technical MA crossover, for the index short or the wedge breakdown.

4:10 GOOG hit 50 W moving average.

11:50 P.M Added a little bit of spy short to our long term hold. For this type of holding, we'd stay away from ultra etfs. The spdrs are much better index trackers. We fully well think 600 is doable in the next couple of years. Our goal is to keep trading in & out of spy shorts to have a monster spy short (ofcourse hopefully built purely on profits of these short term trades :-)) by fall time.

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