11:45 Thus far as expected, looks like consolidation. Volume is light. Still holding onto 25% position in SPY calls from yesterday for a last gasp up move on monday.
5:45 Letting SPY calls ride into monday. No trades today, too busy in the afternoon. No change in the picture painted from yesterday.
We said we expected a struggle and that is exactly what we got, neither side won (OK - maybe the bulls drew some more bear blood). It feels like an "upward" consolidation before a final gasp push on monday. We are not happy with the odds of this happening, but we'll let the calls ride anyway as this can do our portfolio no harm, since we are already in the green on this trade.
Precious metals continue to sink. What we are watching for in this space over the next few weeks is to see a short term "alignment of the stars" i.e. 5d < 20d < 50d < 200d moving averages and all of them with a negative slope. As of now, there is only partial alignment in silver & gold: 200d( pointing upwards in gold), 50d(pointing upwards in silver). Next week is a quite key, as it encompasses a potential cycle turn date.
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2 comments:
Thanks for taking time to update your blog. Very useful info. Raised some more cash. 40% cash, 6% short, 54% Long. Had some April SPY 90 puts under water. Sold FAS. Bought FAZ. Are we still expecting SPX to go 760 before going up above 950. If possible please provide info on SPX move by numbers.
Thanks again
--Sastocks
Glad I could help.
While I don't know the exact choreography, I would like to believe we visit 760, before we see 950. I think we are in the final throes of this wave up (Dow 8300 is possible), so I would not bet on the upside too heavily. The turndate looks like it is a top.
I don't trade very heavily, as I don't get the time during the day. So, I usually look at EOD data.
Currently, I have a 2% position in SPY 84 calls, 5% in precious metal shorts, 10% in pwe (oil trust) and the rest cash.
I usually direct the proceeds of my trading account to put into my long term Pf, which I never sell, the long term pf has only dividend (which I reinvest) stocks like COP, EWT, NZT, PFE, K, DIS, DE, ED, NEM, T, X, WY, WHR, ABX, CAT etc. My long Pf is still quite small. I only have small amounts of each stock. I will continue building it over the summer.
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