cycle dates

We are going on a vacation for a couple of months. So we won't be able to post, not regularly atleast. In any event we just wanted to paint an intermediate scenario.

Our tentative next cycle dates are on July 9, July 22 and aug 11. The polarity is still not clear to us. But as of now it looks like 9th will be a high, 22nd a low and 11th a high to bring the bear out in real strength again. The July 22-aug11 is very important. We expect to see a 2-3 month bear from that time frame. We don't have price targets, but anything in the 750 area is game. It is possible that gold may provide temporary respite during august when we expect a mini crash.

The cycles are just waiting for the dollar to put in a double bottom or some sort of base. There may be one more drop in the dollar and then a blistering rally. Sentiment has been negative for quite a while.

On a fundamental note, we are seeing signs of distribution in the bond etfs - notable the junk bond and munis. While it is a tad too early, the loss of momentum bears watching. Have a good summer.