Above are the monthly and daily charts of natural gas.
Our preferred ew counts are labelled on the daily. It makes the argument for another leg down into July 23rd or Sept1 or oct 11, which are seasonal turn dates for natural gas. The long term chart shows a nice 1:1 symmetry at 2.7$. We expect a nice bounce off there should prices dip down into that area.
We did buy UNG when natgas was at 3.25 and had a huge move up. We rode the 'a' leg up a month or so ago, mistaking it for a new bull run. We got out at the 50d moving average. Natgas pierced the 50d but was stalled by the 20W moving average. Since then it has gone nowhere.
Ofcourse, all this will be wrong if natgas exceeds the peaks of A,C. Lets just say, if natgas can break above the 20W moving average, then we will jump on board again natgas again.
In essence, whichever way this triangle gives, there will be a whole lot of supply/demand above/underneath. Looking at the volume on UNG a lot of players are interested. Seems to us, they are tad too early.
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